Did the iPhone quietly end the baby boom? Two studies say yes.
Two new studies named in the June 8 NYT make a specific empirical claim tying the 2007 iPhone rollout to the onset of fertility decline — a trajectory signal that, if it holds up, reframes one of the most consequential demographic shifts in modern history. The Vox piece on AI finishing what smartphones started adds a second layer of urgency.
Two 2026 studies flag 2007 — the iPhone's launch year — as the exact inflection point where global fertility began its synchronized decline.
South Korea's fertility rate fell below 1.0 before smartphones existed — urbanization and cost data explain the trend without invoking the iPhone.
Global fertility dropped below replacement rate 2.1 in 2023 — the first time ever — making a single synchronizing variable like smartphones worth serious study.
Hidden truth: Both studies' 2007 inflection point is also the eve of the 2008 financial crisis — the causal question is wide open.Read the full breakdown →
Do you believe smartphones meaningfully contributed to the global fertility decline?
