Markets now bet 52% on a Fed hike — who's right and who's trapped
BULL CASE
52% hike odds post a hot jobs report signal economic strength, not distress — markets are pricing a hike the economy can absorb.
BEAR CASE
T-bill yields now below surging inflation per Wolf Street (May 31) — the Fed isn't ahead of this, it's already losing the inflation fight.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Alphabet doubling capex to $190B while the Fed eyes hikes shows global capital is still betting on U.S. growth despite tightening risk.
Hidden Truth
Hidden truth: The forecasting tool pricing a 52% hike is under a congressional ban bill — and housing already at 1995-low sales before any hike lands.Read the full breakdown →
Do you believe the Fed will raise interest rates at least once before the end of 2026?
